Friday, January 10, 2014

NHL

Yesterday: -0.50

My four teams outshot their opponents 139-97 but gave up a higher shooting percentage 13.4% to 8.6% and therefore got outscored 12-13 for the 2-2 split last night.



YTD:  -2.77 units (@ 1 unit each)

ROI: -2.1 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 1.07 units
Average loss: 1.16 units
Average money line: -108
Winning % required to break even: 51.9%
Current YTD winning %: 50.9%

Favorites: 36-36 -9.11  (PL favs = 13-6 +6.01)
Underdogs: 20-17 +7.34  (PL dogs = 6-4 +2.80)
Even money: 3-4 -1.00  (PL even = 1-0 +1.00)

SU record: 69-53
Pythagorean record: 70-52  (based on goal differential below)


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.01  (+0.32 better than NHL avg of 2.69)
Goals allowed per game: 2.56  (+0.13 better than NHL avg of 2.69)
Shots on goal per game: 31.7  (+1.7 better than NHL avg of 30.0)
Shots allowed per game: 27.2  (+2.8 better than NHL avg of 30.0)

Shooting percentage for: 9.5%
Shooting percentage against: 9.4%

Overtime games: 16-15 (7-7 ot/9-8 so)


Tonight's matchups comparing 8 different statistical evaluations (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end:

Dallas 0.3 0.4 2.1 1.1 0.4 2.6 0.9 0.6 -7.7
NY Rangers 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 4.6 0.3 0.2 1.0 3.4
Toronto 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.7 5.7 3.5 0.3 0.3 -7.6
Washington 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.7 -2.9
Carolina 0.1 0.1 0.4 4.5 0.2 2.9 0.2 0.7 -11.6
Columbus 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.5 0.1 -0.8
NY Islanders 0.9 0.3 2.6 0.2 0.7 0.7 2.8 0.7 3.4
Colorado 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 3.8 2.6 0.9 0.3 -6.5
Pittsburgh 0.5 0.2 1.5 0.0 1.3 0.1 2.2 0.8 -2.5
Edmonton 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.8 6.9 2.8 0.4 0.1 -8.2
St. Louis 1.5 0.5 1.1 0.4 1.2 1.2 5.9 1.5 6.6
Vancouver 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.9 4.3


Tonight's plays

NY Rangers -0.5 -106
Washington -0.5 +100
Columbus -146
NY Islanders +136

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