NHL

Saturday: 1-1-1 +0.00

There are wins hidden in this work. In the matchups at the bottom, the team with simply the higher overall number in blue has gone 110-94 blindly against all lines and margins. When the margin is 11.1 or higher, they are 40-25 (61.5%) +5.49 units and if I set the margins to 7.12+ and limit the money lines to -180 for road teams and 10.53+ up to -260 for home teams, the results are 52-28 +22.61 with a 28% ROI.

My problem has been picking the wrong plays at the wrong times apparently. I've gone 12-19 -10.28 units since 11/15. A little frustrating but it's a long season.


YTD:  21-25-3 -7.11 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -13.2%
Average win: 1.09 units
Average loss: 1.20 units
Breakeven price: -110
Breakeven winning %: 52.4%
Current YTD winning %: 45.7%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.9
Goals allowed per game: 2.8
Shots on goal per game: 31.5
Shots allowed per game: 26.7

Shooting percentage for: 9.3%
Shooting percentage against: 10.3%

Overtime results: 6-8 -3.93 (1-3 ot/5-5 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 17
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 5

Comments: I've had 49 wagers involving 50 teams (1 two-team parlay). 38 of those 50 teams had as many or more shots than their opponent (76%) and has led to a +4.8 SOG per game advantage. Although shots don't directly translate to wins, I'd rather be on the team with more. My shooting percentage differential is killing me, however, although I've gotten it down to -1.0%. OT games, which I expect to be 50/50, have not gone well at 6-8.

Tonight's matchups. Eight different formula ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

San Jose	0.4	0.1	0.2	1.0	4.8	0.6	0.2	0.2	-3.4
Toronto	1.0	0.6	1.4	0.8	10.0	6.5	0.5	0.1	-11.2
Pittsburgh	0.9	0.3	2.1	0.1	4.9	3.1	1.5	0.3	5.0
NY Islanders	1.2	0.9	0.2	1.0	1.9	0.4	4.6	3.3	-11.0
Carolina	0.2	0.0	3.4	0.4	3.9	2.1	0.3	0.6	-2.0
Washington	0.3	0.2	0.6	1.3	5.6	5.8	0.4	0.9	-7.8
Tampa Bay	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	3.1
Columbus	0.7	0.6	1.4	1.9	8.5	0.7	0.8	1.7	-2.1
Ottawa	0.6	0.8	0.3	1.0	1.5	1.8	2.3	2.1	-10.6
Florida	0.7	0.5	1.0	0.6	1.7	1.2	2.9	2.0	-5.5
Vancouver	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.8	7.0	2.6	2.3	1.0	2.5
Nashville	0.3	0.1	1.0	0.5	1.5	0.0	0.8	0.5	2.4
Dallas	0.2	0.1	0.6	0.6	4.9	1.0	0.9	0.2	0.7
Chicago	0.5	0.2	1.6	2.3	5.1	2.4	0.0	1.5	-5.5
Phoenix	0.2	0.3	1.0	0.7	0.7	2.6	0.4	0.2	-5.7
Edmonton	0.1	0.1	1.5	0.6	1.9	1.0	0.1	0.6	-0.9
Los Angeles	0.6	0.9	1.4	0.1	2.4	2.4	1.6	2.6	10.8
Anaheim	0.1	0.3	1.1	1.9	2.6	0.6	1.2	1.2	1.4

Tonight's plays

San Jose -1 -112
Pittsburgh -1 +108
Tampa Bay +100