NHL

Tuesday: 1-1-1 +0.00

The matchup differentials in blue at the bottom continue to show dividends as the qualifying plays went 3-0 on Tuesday based on the requirements from that last post.


YTD:  22-26-4 -7.11 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -12.7%
Average win: 1.08 units
Average loss: 1.19 units
Breakeven price: -110
Breakeven winning %: 52.3%
Current YTD winning %: 45.8%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.8
Goals allowed per game: 2.6
Shots on goal per game: 31.3
Shots allowed per game: 26.2

Shooting percentage for: 9.0%
Shooting percentage against: 10.0%

Overtime results: 7-8 -2.93 (2-3 ot/5-5 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 18
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 5

Comments: I've had 52 wagers involving 53 teams (1 two-team parlay). 41 of those 53 teams had as many or more shots than their opponent (77%) and has led to a +5.1 SOG per game advantage.

Tonight's matchups. Eight different formula ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Dallas	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.4	2.6	0.2	0.0	0.6	0.5
Toronto	1.0	0.7	1.3	0.5	10.2	6.5	0.7	0.5	-11.7
San Jose	0.5	0.1	1.0	0.6	3.3	0.4	0.6	0.3	-0.7
Pittsburgh	0.8	0.3	1.8	0.1	6.0	4.0	0.8	0.2	4.7
NY Rangers	0.0	0.1	1.7	1.4	3.5	0.6	0.8	0.2	4.2
Buffalo	1.0	0.3	0.6	0.3	9.3	4.9	1.2	0.2	-5.7
Boston	0.3	0.4	0.3	1.3	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.2	1.6
Montreal	0.7	0.4	0.6	2.5	2.0	2.1	2.8	1.8	7.5
Ottawa	0.7	0.9	0.4	0.9	3.2	1.4	3.2	2.5	-11.4
Tampa Bay	0.1	0.3	0.9	0.1	0.8	1.0	0.4	0.8	3.6
Winnipeg	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.9	1.1	3.2	1.8	1.3	1.5
Florida	0.7	0.5	0.9	0.4	1.1	0.4	2.7	1.7	-5.3
Chicago	0.3	0.3	1.1	2.4	7.4	3.1	1.4	2.2	-6.6
Minnesota	0.1	0.6	0.1	0.2	0.1	4.1	0.6	0.8	7.7
Carolina	0.1	0.1	2.3	0.5	4.7	2.6	1.1	0.3	-3.7
Nashville	0.2	0.3	1.6	0.6	1.4	0.6	0.4	0.8	4.4
NY Islanders	1.1	1.0	0.4	0.9	2.4	0.4	4.4	3.5	-11.4
St. Louis	0.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	4.8	4.5	1.7	0.4	5.2
Colorado	0.0	0.1	1.3	1.3	2.7	2.6	0.7	0.4	-5.3
Edmonton	0.3	0.1	0.8	0.2	3.5	1.7	0.1	0.2	-2.5

Tonight's plays

Dallas -110
NY Rangers -1 +111
Tampa Bay -115
Nashville -130
St. Louis -1 -154