NHL

Yesterday: +1.10

In reference to my other post regarding playing puck lines (PL), my YTD record is currently 30-31-5 -4.57 units but my straight up (SU) record is 36-31 when you factor in the five -1 PL bets that won by exactly 1 goal (thus registering as a "push" instead of a win in my record) and the double win on my 2-team parlay earlier in the season.

I've played 17 teams on the PL and 2 teams in the parlay. These teams have gone 17-2 SU. I've saved 2.60 units on the two losses with the reduced juice (which is the reason I play them this way) but have lost five units on the pushes for a difference of -2.40 units combined. Add in the extra win I needed to win my parlay and I am worse off by -3.40 units compared to if I played all 67 teams straight on the money line (ML). That's the price you pay when you hit 15 out of 17 PL wagers and 55 out of 71 in two years (77%). I realize 71 games isn't much of a sample size so I'm going to continue to monitor this. I have made 10.36 less units in those 71 PL wagers versus the ML.

An alternative money management wager for large favorites instead of playing the PL is playing a "regulation only" wager. All bets basically become even money in overtime so if you paid -140 for a favorite, you have lost 40 cents on the dollar once it goes past regulation.


YTD:  -4.57 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -6.4%
Average win: 1.07 units
Average loss: 1.18 units
Average money line: -111
Winning % required to break even: 52.5%
Current YTD winning %: 49.2%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.88  (NHL avg = 2.64)
Goals allowed per game: 2.51
Shots on goal per game: 30.6  (NHL avg = 29.9)
Shots allowed per game: 26.6

Shooting percentage for: 9.4%
Shooting percentage against: 9.4%

Overtime results: 8-9 -3.03 (3-4 ot/5-5 so)

Comments: The handicapping stats are improving. I finally got even in shooting percentage after being over -2% at one point. OT games are only one game below .500. My teams have scored more goals per game and accumulated more shots on goal per game than the league averages and also allowed less than the league average in each category. Based on everything, I'm surprised I'm not showing a profit.


Tonight's matchups. 8 different statistical ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Los Angeles	0.9	1.2	1.3	0.9	1.6	1.3	2.8	4.1	15.5
Toronto	0.8	0.8	0.4	0.2	12.0	8.2	1.0	0.3	-13.0
Philadelphia	0.4	0.2	0.8	0.1	0.3	1.8	1.2	0.1	-3.0
Chicago	1.0	0.1	1.0	1.7	4.1	2.8	1.9	0.3	-0.4
Minnesota	0.5	0.2	0.5	0.6	2.0	2.2	1.4	0.2	4.9
Anaheim	0.6	0.3	0.0	1.0	0.1	1.1	2.1	1.2	4.1

Tonight's play

Chicago -1 -110