NHL

Yesterday: 3-2 +0.71

Before last night's 8-2, home teams all season had gone 219-202 (52.0%). From 1990-2012, home teams won close to 56% of the time. It would stand to reason home teams are going to go on a run at some point. Not surprisingly, I am 9-15 -10.26 with home teams (after 2-1 +0.70 last night) and 16-13 +3.86 with road teams this year (1-1 +0.01 last night). Most of the time, home teams are favored so if they're only winning 52% of the time, they're going to lose a lot of units and anyone who plays home favorites fairly regularly are likely taking a hit there as I am. Look for a natural correction soon. Add to that, I am now 7-9 in OT games which is due for a slight correction as well. These are historically 50/50. One OT swing can be worth around 2.5 units.


YTD:  25-28-4  -6.40 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -10.3%
Average win: 1.08 units
Average loss: 1.19 units
Breakeven price: -110
Breakeven winning %: 52.5%
Current YTD winning %: 47.2%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.8
Goals allowed per game: 2.6
Shots on goal per game: 31.2
Shots allowed per game: 26.2

Shooting percentage for: 9.1%
Shooting percentage against: 9.8%

Overtime results: 7-9 -4.03 (2-4 ot/5-5 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 20
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 6

Comments: I've had 57 wagers involving 58 teams (1 two-team parlay). 45 of these 58 teams had as many or more shots than their opponent (78%) and has led to a +5.0 SOG per game advantage.


Tonight's matchups. 8 different statistical ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Minnesota	0.2	0.5	0.1	0.1	1.4	5.3	1.1	0.1	7.6
Columbus	0.6	0.3	1.9	1.7	9.9	1.0	1.4	0.7	-0.1
San Jose	0.5	0.1	1.7	0.7	4.9	0.5	0.3	0.5	-0.6
Carolina	0.0	0.1	1.8	1.0	4.8	2.0	1.7	0.2	-4.2
Detroit	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.1	3.0	1.7	1.1	1.3	-3.6
New Jersey	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.2	0.0	4.8	2.0	0.1	7.5
Anaheim	0.2	0.2	0.6	1.4	0.1	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.9
Chicago	0.2	0.3	1.1	2.3	7.1	3.4	1.9	2.4	-6.6
Colorado	0.3	0.2	2.2	1.4	2.7	2.9	0.2	0.2	-6.5
Calgary	0.7	0.5	0.7	1.2	5.1	0.4	0.6	1.8	-2.2
Phoenix	0.3	0.6	1.1	0.4	0.0	2.2	1.0	1.2	-7.6
Vancouver	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.0	6.9	2.1	2.5	0.9	2.6

Tonight's plays

New Jersey -127
Calgary +108
Vancouver -140