NHL

Yesterday: +1.00

Chicago was too much for Philly last night winning 7-2. I played them on the -1 PL and am now 18-2 SU and effectively 13-2-5 ATS (+11.00 units) with my large favorites that I reduce with the PL. Another goes tonight. I've been tightening things up lately, only playing games I trust the most until the season progresses a bit more.


YTD:  -3.57 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -4.9%
Average win: 1.07 units
Average loss: 1.18 units
Average money line: -111
Winning % required to break even: 52.6%
Current YTD winning %: 50.0%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.94  (NHL avg = 2.64)
Goals allowed per game: 2.50
Shots on goal per game: 30.5  (NHL avg = 29.9)
Shots allowed per game: 26.6

Shooting percentage for: 9.6%
Shooting percentage against: 9.4%

Overtime results: 8-9 -3.03 (3-4 ot/5-5 so)

Comments: The handicapping stats are still improving. I suddenly have a higher shooting percentage today after being worse than -2% at one point. OT games are only one game below .500. My teams have scored more goals per game and accumulated more shots on goal per game than the league averages and also allowed less than the league average in each category. Based on everything, I'm surprised I'm not showing a profit.


Tonight's matchups. 8 different statistical ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Montreal	0.4	0.2	0.8	2.0	3.7	2.1	2.5	1.2	4.7
Philadelphia	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.8	0.8	2.2	1.3	-5.0
Columbus	0.1	0.1	1.5	1.9	6.4	0.2	2.7	0.2	4.7
NY Rangers	0.3	0.2	2.2	1.8	0.5	0.2	1.3	0.7	1.2
Detroit	0.1	0.1	0.6	1.0	2.9	3.0	0.3	0.5	0.7
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1	2.5	0.1	0.7	0.6	1.5
Buffalo	1.0	0.1	1.2	0.7	6.4	1.8	2.1	0.9	1.7
Ottawa	0.7	0.7	1.5	1.3	4.4	1.6	3.2	1.9	-10.8
Toronto	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.3	9.1	6.9	0.5	0.5	-12.3
St. Louis	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.3	2.7	4.3	1.5	0.4	4.6
Colorado	0.6	0.4	1.4	0.8	2.2	1.1	1.5	1.1	-6.4
Winnipeg	0.5	0.1	1.2	0.2	0.0	1.2	1.8	0.1	-1.8
Dallas	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.7	1.7	1.1	1.7	1.4	1.2
Nashville	0.5	0.6	2.4	1.0	1.9	0.3	2.4	2.1	8.8
Carolina	0.2	0.2	0.3	2.1	1.1	0.4	1.1	0.4	-6.1
Calgary	0.3	0.1	1.0	0.4	3.8	0.5	0.2	0.6	-0.4
NY Islanders	1.5	1.0	0.7	1.1	1.6	0.4	5.4	3.4	-11.8
Phoenix	0.3	0.2	1.0	1.1	0.4	3.0	1.1	0.4	-5.6
Boston	0.7	0.6	1.1	1.5	0.3	1.2	2.3	1.8	3.8
Edmonton	0.5	0.1	0.7	0.6	2.2	2.0	2.4	0.9	0.9
Minnesota	0.6	0.3	0.2	1.0	3.0	1.4	1.5	0.5	5.4
San Jose	0.2	0.1	0.9	1.3	6.3	0.2	0.9	0.3	-1.6

Tonight's play

St. Louis -0.5 -160 (1st 60 min)

I'm playing my first regulation wager of the season. I can basically get St. Louis for -1 -158 with OT or -0.5 -160 and no OT. The drawbacks with my regulation wager are that I lose instead of push if St. Louis wins in OT but the advantage is I win instead of push in regulation if they only win by one goal. From what I've tested in the 72 wagers of large favorites for the past two seasons where I am 56-16 SU, regulation wagers have been slightly better than -1 PLs so far but not by much. Instead of pushing 23 of those 72 games at -1, I would have won 14 of those pushes and lost 9 for an extra 1.90 units.