NHL

Yesterday: -1.20

Four of my five plays last night were decided by 1 goal (discarding the empty-netter against Calgary). I went 1-3 on those games and added a blowout win by Chicago. Exactly one hundred plays into my 2013-14 NHL season and I've won 59% of them SU. Six of those 59 wins became pushes on the -1 PL and I turned two wins into losses on the regulation only line for an ATS record of 51-43-6. Had I played everything straight I'd be up nearly 15 units. I continue to monitor the best way to play these games.

The team with the better blue number at the end of the matchups by margins of 7.4+ on the road and 10.9+ at home have now gone 76-38 +34.54 units. These differential margins have produced a play on 31% of the schedule and have won at an ROI of 30% to this point. Los Angeles would be the lone qualifier tonight.


YTD:  +4.26 units (@ 1 unit each)

ROI: 3.9%
Average win: 1.07 units
Average loss: 1.17 units
Average money line: -109
Winning % required to break even: 52.2%
Current YTD winning %: 54.3%

Favorites: 32-27 -2.18  (PL favs = 12-2 +9.68)
Underdogs: 17-12 +8.44  (PL dogs = 5-4 +1.65)
Even money: 2-4 -2.00  (PL even = 1-0 +1.00)

SU record: 59-41


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.04  (NHL avg = 2.64)
Goals allowed per game: 2.49
Shots on goal per game: 31.2  (NHL avg = 29.9)
Shots allowed per game: 27.1

Shooting percentage for: 9.8%
Shooting percentage against: 9.2%

Overtime results: 14-12 (5-5 ot/9-7 so)


Tonight's matchups. 8 different statistical ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end:

Detroit	0.9	0.2	0.2	0.8	1.3	3.5	4.0	2.1	0.8
Florida	0.9	0.5	1.1	1.1	1.8	0.3	3.5	1.8	-2.5
Montreal	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.9	3.7	0.1	0.3	0.6	3.8
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.7	0.9	0.8	2.2	0.4	0.3	2.3	5.7
Boston	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.4	2.5	0.8	2.4	1.5	4.1
Ottawa	0.5	0.4	1.5	2.6	2.7	2.1	2.3	0.8	-10.7
New Jersey	0.1	0.2	0.2	1.3	0.0	3.5	0.2	2.1	2.0
NY Islanders	0.7	0.3	1.2	0.4	3.7	0.1	1.3	0.8	-3.4
Chicago	1.5	0.1	2.5	0.7	5.7	4.6	3.0	1.4	4.5
St. Louis	0.7	0.1	1.7	0.9	2.3	3.8	1.7	1.6	2.9
Phoenix	0.1	0.0	0.9	0.2	3.3	0.2	1.2	0.1	0.0
Anaheim	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.8	1.8	1.4	3.7	1.4	7.6
Los Angeles	1.2	1.1	1.5	2.0	1.1	0.9	3.7	3.6	16.1
Nashville	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1	1.1	0.8	3.4	1.6	-3.9
Philadelphia	0.5	0.7	1.8	0.4	1.5	0.2	1.4	2.4	-8.0
Edmonton	0.4	0.4	0.6	1.4	2.9	2.5	0.5	0.6	-8.3

Tonight's plays

Anaheim -0.5 -109 (reg)
Los Angeles -0.5 -105 (reg)